Response to Congo Siasa Blog

 @muanacongo @congoman and all others brothers

1.      First thank you for having a civil discussion. Although we don't share the same views. I like that this time discussion is at the arguments level without unnecessary name calling. Ultimately when our country will be a true democracy it will be the population that will decide between these visions which one it wants.

2.      Regarding the next steps, Muana Congo and Congoman, I am afraid that the IC (the one you talk with, as IC is diverse) and all the people sharing your reading of this situation get overrun by reality. There are 2 huge variables that are not factored in your view:  population’s will and population’s level of exasperation.

Even if DRC population is known to being quite, outburst of violence similar to these Kaberebe forces entering Kinshasa in 1998 faced when they were stopped not by the army but by the population itself should make people think of where the real power seats.

3.      By the time you create this "unity around Kabila" population and army could be in open rebellion with most of the opponent in exile.

4.      As I have said before, November failed election will not stop to haunt us, and it has become a distraction for uniting the nation.

I can sincerely tell you that no one has moved over these elections. From the population that feels disconnected from Kabila’s power and brands it as cheater and traitors selling the country " Na Prix Mangondo"; to even people from Kabila party who are in a repressive mode for strengthening a lame power and thus are unable to mobilize internally.

5.      If you have good memories Mobutu fell for the same reasons. Population was so fed up that his army did not fight, his generals were conspiring against him and population watched as spectators. We are now living the consequences, it was at that moment that Rwandese and their their tutsi/hutu hatred got invited into DRC politics.

6.      We are living a similar moment. What is at stake is the survival of this country and the future of its inhabitants. You cannot always rule against people will and expecting them to support you, even when people supporting you mean people supporting themselves. Masses are not so bright, and that is why we Congolese intelligentsia have to think ahead. We cannot just  only have a short sighted vision for this war -  like LDK had when he allied with Rwanda for the sake of throwing Mobutu out without planning the aftermath - but also think for the next steps. Otherwise, the next Rwandese will be the Angolans or the South African. Now, 6 Millions deaths later I don’t think that LDK really measured the reach his decision would take for the Congolese population.

7.      Another consequence of this failed election is the very situation we have in the east.  Why May-May withdrawn from the 2009 accord? Because they were marginalized and their force diluted for giving Rwandese all power. May-Mayi have a very bad memories of Kabila willingness to help Congolese. Elections sent a “whatever you do, I am the boss” signal meaning Kabila won't change. And the way this war was led, showed to May May that they were right to not get into the farce, and it totally destroyed trust to Kabila, his chief of staff and all the FARDC chain of command. May-May have no trust, ZERO, to Kabila. One May-May once told me that for him in one side there were the Congoleses: May- May and Fardc soldiers and in the others Rwandese: M23, Kabila and his ex-CNDP FARDC generals.

8.      @Congoman , this is a war of invasion, I agree. The person you should convince of that is Kabila. Beyond discourse wat has he done?

9.      There are 2 ways of reading this situation:

1) through Kabila feeling like not giving a space to opposition (his sworn enemy, like you called them) and Kabila deciding to bring in mercenaries from all Africa for compensating his fear of his own army and population.

2) To really act as a Congolese and go beyond feelings, look long term and mobilize internal resources to end all of this nonsense in eastern DRC. We don't need SADC to fight for us. We need Kabila to pay , feed and supply our army with ammo!!!!!! That is all we need. However because of November election, and the way Kabila managed this war, Kabila knows that letting option 2) happening, means his demise at short or longer term.

10.  Since the beginning of this war, when FARDc were victoriously advancing and fighting bravely, I have been hearing in circle close to Kabila that these soldiers constitute a menace and that they will never be allowed to return to Kinshasa. I have read other people saying the same thing in this blog. For certain people, having a true Congolese forces strong enough to defeat Rwandese was a bad precedent. Moreover the fact that this force was trained by Belgium that ensured a diverse recruitment from all the country meant that this force, unlike the presidential guard, is a loyalty risk for Kabila.

11.  Since people have spoken  about that what have we seen happening? We have seen that supply of ammo and food to soldiers in the frontline stopped. Since the whole world has been speaking about it, did supply resume?

12.  Despite not having food and water, for the country, not for Kabila, these soldiers fought for days and withdrawn from their position only when they ran out of ammo. I won't speak of the Rwindi "tactical retreat" episode when soliders basically mutinied and asked government to be serious and to provide them means to fight, I won't speak about betrayal at the highest level of FARDC and the furor of belgian instructor, that were supervising Congolese troop, at the manner the government was sending these young men to deaths... A quick internet research will give you plenty of links speaking of the dire situation the Congolese soldiers has been fighting in.

13.  I personally know some of the people who died in this war in Bunagana and Rutshuru, not all of them were Kivutians, some of them never set foot in Kivus before, they were and felt Congolese. For those ones we have a duty, to never let nonsense like Kivutians will fight better for Congo than Congolese for other regions. Congoman I'm telling you this because I have read you writing this before in this blog. Trust Congolese people, Kasaien, Bas Congolese, Katangese , Equatoriens have died in front lines and even more are ready to go dying there .

  

14.  We have a paradox situation here, it is like there is a burning house and within that house the head of household has shackled his kids who wanted to fight the fire and he prefers to call the neighbors to firefight...... Will the house still be there when neighbors decide to help and arrive, will kids still be alive within the burning house when neighbors arrive? What are the motives of the head of the household? I think that in this case the kids have to free themselves and fight the fire and fight the insanity of their father altogether.

15.  I believe in Congolese people solving Congolese problem, nobody will serve our interest better than ourself. It is our blood that has to flow to protect our fatherland. And the supreme commander of Congolese armed force (Kabila) must help those of us who are ready to make the ultimate sacrifice instead of fighting us through disguise.

16.  Division in our society is not like people will want the world to think. Politician are encouraging certain stereotype about west/east but these are mostly ways to give them legitimacy based on where they come from instead of what they have done. We have our cohabitation  issues, but the understanding that our society is diverse is very well entrenched in Congolese people mind. Mixed marriage is basically the norm, nowadays. Today political choices are mostly based on economical interests instead of regional/tribal origins. November elections provisory results that I had (I know that real results will never be known) from independent and inteligence sources clearly show that. Still I agree, now is kind of everybody who has his own results, and again an occasion that could have been used to show that congolese society has evolved in the right direction in term of cohesion and congolese identity was missed.

17.  You can genuinely think that calling mercenaries from over Africa will solve the issue, I strongly doubt. And all these others countries have the same information that we have. Do you really think that they are taking kabila  seriously? They know that sending troops will be to protect Kabila regime and they won't do that just for the love of Congolese. They will want payments.....

18.  Personally after talking with the part of IC I know, I understand that there is nothing much to expect from IC if Congolese themselves don't start a dynamic. IC can accompany a movement but cannot outwardly change a reality. And within IC there are many competing interest, any side can get support from different side of IC...

19.  I'm afraid that the pragmatic solution consisting of “Uniting around Kabila” and “compelling Kabila to comply to some minimum” won't work. And if it is implemented it won’t change life of congolese. As this solution ends up to giving Kabila a blank check to run the country. No, IC will prevent Kabila to change constitution, not a single African dictator has been stopped to change constitution. There could be sanctions that won’t hurt Kabila and his cronies, but they will be useless to make him change direction, just look at Kagame...Doing  that will cause even more frustration and when this frustration will explode, I'm very  afraid of what will come out of this.

20.  I agree with Eole, you are seriously under estimating Kabila and his entourage commitment to remain in power... They have no willingness to increase political space. We will need to have kisangani to fall before they realize they need help from within Congolese society. From their office they rule totally disconnected from reality of the people. They are ready to make Mobutu mistakes and go to exile when they military lose power.

21.  This power is extremely corrupted from within. Kabila might love this country, what I seriously doubt (in fact I don’t sincerely thinks that he has any sort of connection with DRC population), but that does not make him competent to run the country. If he made the mistakes he made but still loved the country, then ok, he is just an incompetent Congolese president loving this country and he should leave space for a competent individual who equally loves this country. Kabila is not Congo, he is not the only one of us who can run this country who has inner truth.

22.  Kabila has to start serious political gesture, if he does not start quick, he might seriously be surprised and we as well. Something is changing in congolese people mindset. Too too much deaths and humiliation. When it will blow it will go in all directions and I'm not sure that it will benefit Congolese.

23.  My last point will be around ethnicity and the tutsi feeling of being always in danger. Sometime we must ask ourself, and even the leaders of the tutsi community must start asking themselves, where are we going?

24.  In the last 15 years or so, since the Rwanda Genocide, the immensity of the people who died were killed directly or indirectly because of the leaders of the tutsies community. When these leaders were perpetrating or supporting or covering up this massacre with the western power turning a blind eye, what were they thinking? That the others people would love them? Like a dog that you kick and that always comes back to you?

25.  Since 1994 Tutsies protection has been the reason for wide scale massacre of other ethnic groups and here we are talking about millions. In fact, tutsi leaders are responsible of more deaths than their own number, tutsi population in Great lakes is approximated between 8- to 10 million (in DRC they are less than 1%), and the number of deaths in DRC alone directly or indirectly related to tutsi leaders killings is around 5 to 6 millions!!!!

26.  Tutsi is the most sur-represented ethnic group in the DRC institution while not representing 1% of the population. Tutsi have been rulling Kivus since 1996, through RCD, CNDP, Ntaganda and Co. But it is never enough…..What did tutsies leaders have done to make their community live peacefully with their neighbors in the area they controlled? Why is it always the other fault that cohabitation is bad?

27.  Tutsi security or feeling of security will not come from the barrel of the gun, and it has become a lame reason for killing and killing and destroying other people’s life. Tutsi security will come from :

1)              Accepting the truth and asking for forgiveness and accepting forgiveness from others , in this case a verity and reconciliation program should be put in place.

2)              Congolese Tutsi to feel Congolese and stop using Rwanda as an excuse, and I know that many of them are very against Kagame politics, we have Congoles tutsies and they are congolese as I am, but nonsense like Ntaganda who is a Rwandese citizen being called Congolese must stop;

3) A strong states that guaranty people’s right. NO MORE IMPUNITY.

28.  For the last 15 years Kagame has set the speed of the great lakes tragedy and I don’t think that anything good came out of it, instead of more killings, more hatreds and life destruction, It is time to try something else. Something very simple still difficult to implement but that has long lasting value: truth and accountability.   

29.  Kabila is part of Kagame system, he has to go. Not for the IC but for the Congolese.